STAUNTON – Early Friday morning, National Weather Service issued a hazardous weather outlook for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland.
"Heat headlines are in effect for dangerously high heat and humidity Friday afternoon and early evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few may produce localized damaging wind gusts and isolated flooding.
"Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday during the afternoon and evening hours. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and isolated flash flooding in urban areas," said the National Weather Service hazardous outlook.
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Understanding probability of rain percentages
Chance of rain is much higher, according to the AccuWeather forecast for this weekend vs. the National Weather Service forecast. While NWS has a 30% chance of rain on Friday, AccuWeather has an 88% chance of rain, so we reached out to AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines for a better idea of what that means and what we can expect this weekend in the Valley. Kines said he gets asked this question a lot.
"One thing to remember about the probabilities is just because it's 90% doesn't mean there's going to be a lot of rain," said Kines. "If it's only 10 drops, the 90% forecast is accurate. The probability is not an indication of how long it's going to rain, how heavy it's going to rain. It's, is it going to rain or not."
Between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon and into the night, the odds are pretty good we are going to see some rain, he said. "Anytime we have these heat air masses in the area, which we do, it's always fair game for there to be some downpours."
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Chance of thunderstorms this weekend
A better shot of any heavy thunderstorms happening is Friday, said Kines.
The thunderstorms that could portend this type of weather are not going to hit everywhere. "Usually, it's isolated. Any thunderstorm later today and into the night can certainly be on the strong and gusty side."
Tomorrow in the Shenandoah Valley, the threat of thunderstorms is more to the east. "If we're talking severe weather tomorrow, that's where you talk about the higher threat being east of the Shenandoah Valley."
The good news is there could be a break in the humidity coming up Sunday so that might be something to look forward to, he said. The bad news is that whatever rain we get is not going to bring an end to the drought. "We are still going to have to conserve water."
Both weather app forecasts are provided below along with a real-time weather radar map of the area above.
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AccuWeather forecast
Friday
Hot with clouds and sun with a high of 94 and a real feel index of 101. A couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm; thunderstorms can bring flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts. Chance of rain is 88%.
Saturday
Times of sun and clouds with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, especially late; very warm and humid with a high of 86, real feel index 93. Chance of rain is 90%.
Sunday
A thunderstorm in spots in the morning; otherwise, humid with intervals of clouds and sun with a high of 86, real feel index 94. Chance of rain is 40%.
National Weather Service forecast
Friday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of rain is 30%.
Friday night
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Patchy fog after 3 a.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of rain is 30%.
Saturday
Isolated showers before 11 a.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Patchy fog before 9 a.m. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 50%.
Sunday night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
