2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Overvalued Players, Round Two - Dynasty League Football (2024)

Executing mock drafts are some of my favorite activities to do in the off-season. Rather than focusing on traditional 10-team or 12-team mock drafts you can find anywhere, I like to bring something different to the table as well. This week, I started a mock draft with a simple concept – choose the player on the board you think is overvalued in terms of their ranking, ADP or overall status within the dynasty community. While these players certainly don’t belong on any kind of “do not draft” list or are even unliked by those who selected them, they could represent players who are simply not deemed as a value where you currently have to select them. In other words, the risk just may not be worth the reward. The rules for this exercise were simple – you can take any player (rookie or veteran) and not worry about format (2QB, 1QB, etc.). Simply choose a player you believe is taken too highly. No participant could make two picks in a row so we could get some variety as well. I asked each person to justify their selection and I’ll add my own commentary as well. Make sure you check out our overvalued round one.

With all that in mind, let’s get to it.

2.01 = Anthony Richardson, QB IND

Commentary given: The ceiling is obvious. However the fact Richardson played four games as a rookie, leaving two of them injured is a concern. There are also some serious accuracy concerns that left addressed could limit the longevity Richardson sees as a starting NFL QB.

My thoughts: Richardson just had to be on the list. His upside is truly tantalizing but we just haven’t seen enough from him to feel comfortable with his lofty ranking. Is he the next big thing or the next RGIII? It’s hard to say at this point and anyone who says they know is lying.

2.02 = Brock Bowers, TE LV

Commentary given: Couldn’t leave him on the board any longer. He very well could be the next big thing at the position and the best player we’ve seen there since Travis Kelce or Tony Gonzalez. The problem is he essentially HAS TO BE for you to justify the draft capital you need to use to get him. Sorry. I just don’t see the value here. Even if he is elite (which I do expect), you’ll be rewarded with what will be an “accurate” draft pick, not a “value” draft pick.

My thoughts: Again, Bowers is an elite-level talent but his value is simply baked in. He isn’t a huge risk because his floor is low but building a roster is about finding players at value prices and his just isn’t at the moment. My guess is those who paid “Kyle Pitts Prices” likely regret it a little bit a couple of years later.

2.03 = Puka Nacua, WR LAR

Commentary given: The greatest rookie WR season ever. However, he was still only an average prospect who fell to day three for a reason. A fully healthy Cooper Kupp could eat into his target share and an investment in the interior offensive line and Blake Corum could lean their run/pass split slightly as well.

My thoughts: Wow, what an amazing rookie season. He essentially made the value of rookie draft picks look silly as he was a total afterthought last year, then ended up being THE difference maker in ton of leagues. I believe Kupp is going to make things a little tougher on him this year and think the two of them will likely both end up being low-end WR1s/high-end WR2s rather than being elite-level WR1s but I could be completely wrong there, too.

2.04 = Kyren Williams, RB LAR

Commentary given: A consensus top nine running back in dynasty, Williams’ RB7 in 2023 was predicated on volume and an unsustainable 15 touchdowns on 260 touches. Questions loom over his future usage with the addition of day two draft pick Blake Corum – this could become a 60%/40% split backfield, which is a risk with Williams’ current value.

My thoughts: I agree with this one as well. Williams was great down the stretch last season and a “set it and forget it” option. However, we’ve seen the Rams consistently inconsistent with their running back usage and Corum has had a good camp. I don’t see this as even a 60/40 split but a 70/30 (more likely in my mind) would still spell trouble for Williams.

2.05 = Rome Odunze, WR CHI

Commentary given: I love Odunze as a player but I can’t get behind a ranking of #22 overall when he’s clearly the third best receiver on his own team behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen at the moment. He’s going to have some big games but consistency is going to be brutally hard for him to achieve early in his career. I’d rather buy next off-season after his value dips down into the 30s.

My thoughts: I think it’s going to be very difficult for Odunze to live up to the billing early in his career. Again, I love his talent and believe he’s eventually going to be a top tier player. However, there are just too many variables in his way to line up for rookie year dominance. Rookie quarterbacks seldom make one receiver into an elite option, no less three.

2.06 = Jordan Love, QB GB

Commentary given: Excellent after becoming a starter during his fourth year in the league, finishing as the QB5 – paying a first round startup pick (as per DLF July 2024 SF ADP) is too much for a player with the combination of limited sample size and lack of true ceiling via dual-threat ability.

My thoughts: When you think about it, this really was a small sample size. Love was fantastic last season and rewarded with a handsome new deal. However, will he stay motivated? Can he maintain value when the Packers can’t pay a surrounding cast as well? Can he rush for at least 300 yards in a season to help raise his floor? While Love is a great player, there are still some lingering questions.

2.07 = Tony Pollard, RB DAL

Commentary given: If he couldn’t do it in a prime situation last season then how’s he going to do it in a worse offense with more competition in the backfield? Why are we drafting him ahead of younger, more productive backs in better situations?

My thoughts: I was personally really surprised Pollard was able to land a job as a “starter” in Tennessee so quickly. However, it really seems as if Tyjae Spears is at least a “1B.” On an offense with some serious question marks, I just don’t see a ton of value in him, either.

2.08 = Brian Thomas, WR JAX

Commentary given: Viewed as a top 30 dynasty receiver, Thomas had one year of excellent college production whilst catching passes from the number two draft pick (Jayden Daniels) and easy coverage in an offense across from the number six draft pick (Malik Nabers). Below average breakout age, poor PFF overall grade and a low yards per route ran gives me pause at this cost.

My thoughts: Thomas is clearly expensive and looks to be at least a notch below Odunze, Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. I like Trevor Lawrence to take another step forward but Thomas does have some risk associated with him.

2.09 = Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

Commentary given: I love him as a player but don’t see him as the tenth-best option in dynasty leagues or a first round selection. The Lions may never use him as a true three-down back and while he makes some explosive plays, his production is destined to be erratic at times. David Montgomery isn’t going anywhere in the short-term and every year you lose for a running back is significant.

My thoughts: Gibbs is a talent, that’s for sure. However, I just don’t see “top ten” when I look at him. Even when Montgomery leaves, I find it hard to believe the Lions are just going to hand the offense to Gibbs and run him into the ground. He’s a great player to have on your roster but I like some other options in the late first round a little better.

2.10 = Joe Burrow, QB CIN

Commentary given: Comfortably taken in round one of dynasty startups, Burrow’s cost is a significant risk to take when factoring inthe lethal combination of the lack of true rush ceiling and two season-ending injuries on his resumé. The Bengals’ offense is in transition with a potential exit of Tee Higgins on the horizon. Very difficult click at his current cost.

My thoughts: Superflex leagues are all about the quarterbacks and Burrow is going to be taken in the first just about everywhere. To me, the injuries are really the only concern. Another year of health would keep him in the first round but another injury will sink him. Feel lucky?

2.11 = George Pickens, WR PIT

Commentary given: Top 24 price for a guy who has yet to put it together. A lot of projection in his valuation but no clear idea who will be the starting quarterback and some questions about how both Fields and Wilson fit with Pickens style. Pickens is at his best on contested catches downfield which leads to a high level of variance

My thoughts: The quarterback concern is valid. I like Pickens a little more than most but I can see the concern here as well.

2.12 = Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

My thoughts: This pick is mine and it’s pretty simple – where is he going to end up? Are the 49ers going to pay up and keep him or is he going to get moved? If he’s not in San Francisco, it may be very tough for him to replicate his 75/1,342/7 season. Aiyuk has certainly turned a corner in his career but I’m not sure he could be a WR1 on a bad team and put up similar numbers.